Solutions / Deal risk

Deal risk scoring

Every open deal is read daily — the emails, the calls, the CRM activity — and the ones sliding towards a loss are surfaced with the reason and the next move, while the quarter can still be changed.

Sales ML & analytics Professional services · Finance
1–3 weeks
earlier than the forecast notices
Daily
review of every open deal
Every flag
names what changed and when
Who it is for

Heads of Sales and revenue leaders carrying 50+ active deals, where the forecast is assembled from what reps say rather than from what the pipeline is doing.

Short answer

Every open deal is scored daily against what your own won and lost deals actually looked like, using the emails, calls and CRM activity behind it. Risk is flagged the day it appears — typically 1–3 weeks before the deal slips a stage — with the reason stated and a next step for the rep.

The problem

Deals do not die at the end of the quarter. That is only when you find out.

01

The forecast is a collection of opinions

Every rep is optimistic about their own deals, in good faith. The number you take to the board is the sum of those opinions, corrected by a gut feeling about which reps to discount.

02

Pipeline review looks at the wrong deals

An hour a week goes to the deals reps choose to talk about. The one that quietly went silent three weeks ago is not on the agenda, because nobody remembered it.

03

By the time it is obvious, it is over

The economic buyer stopped joining calls, a competitor's name appeared, procurement went quiet. Each was visible in writing. All of them surfaced together, in the loss review.

How it works

From trigger to result, step by step.

01

Read the pipeline, not the stage field

The CRM, the mailbox and call transcripts are connected. What matters is the activity behind a deal — who is engaged, how fast, about what — not the stage a rep last remembered to update.

02

Learn from your own closed deals

We fit the model on your history: deals you won and deals you lost, and the trajectories that separated them. A generic scoring model fitted to somebody else's sales motion is worse than the rep's instinct.

03

Score every deal each morning

Engagement decay, single-threading, a champion going quiet, next steps missing or slipping, pricing and competitor language, cycle length against comparable deals — each open deal gets a score and a delta from yesterday.

04

Explain, do not just rank

A flagged deal shows what changed: the reply that took nine days, the call the decision-maker skipped, the two weeks with no scheduled next step. The rep can agree or overrule with one click, and the overrule is a training signal.

05

Put it in front of the manager

The risk list writes back to the CRM and arrives as a pre-read before pipeline review, ordered by value at risk — so the meeting starts on the deals nobody was going to mention.

Before / after

What changes on the ground.

Today, by hand
×The forecast is built from rep sentiment
×Pipeline review covers the deals reps raise
×Silent deals stay silent until they close lost
×Loss reasons are reconstructed after the fact
With the automation running
The forecast has an evidence-based second opinion
Review starts with the deals actually at risk
A deal going quiet is flagged within a day
Risk reasons are recorded while the deal is live
What you get

Delivered, not demoed.

A daily risk score and delta for every open deal
A model fitted to your own won and lost history
Explanations linked to the emails, calls and CRM events behind them
Scores written to the CRM plus a pre-read for pipeline review
Documentation and a handover session — the system is yours
Built with

We build in your stack rather than moving you onto ours. The list below is what this solution most often connects to — other systems are a scoping question, not a blocker.

LLM (replaceable) HubSpot Salesforce Pipedrive Gmail API Microsoft 365 Gong / call transcripts Postgres n8n
Time to production5–8 weeks
Build priceFixed quote
First stepFree mini-audit
Honest limits

When this is not the right solution.

·Under roughly 50 active deals, a sales manager who reads their own pipeline will match this. We will say so in the mini-audit rather than build it.
·If the CRM is not filled in and calls are not recorded, there is nothing to score. Getting activity into the system comes first, and it is a management problem before it is a technical one.
·If most of your revenue is transactional and closes in a week, the trajectory has no time to develop — lead scoring is the better place to spend the same money.

Questions we get about this one

The CRM probability is a number attached to a stage, and the stage is whatever a rep last selected. This reads the activity underneath: who is replying, how fast, whether a next step exists, how the language moved. It disagrees with the stage often, and that disagreement is the useful part.

Bring us the process that hurts.

The mini-audit is free: we take your version of this process apart and tell you plainly whether automating it pays. If it does, you get a scope and a fixed price.